Il rallentamento congiunturale negli Stati Uniti ha aumentato in tutto il mondo l’incertezza relativa all’evoluzione futura dell’economia. In Giappone, in particolare, si sono moltiplicati i segnali di un nuovo crollo. Gli impulsi di crescita si sono affievoliti anche in Europa, seppure in misura piu modesta che negli Stati Uniti. Le previsioni per l’Europa rimangono tuttavia positive. In Svizzera, la situazione congiunturale e rimasta favorevole nel quarto trimestre. La crescita del prodotto interno lordo reale, pari quasi al 2%, e risultata pressoche analoga al trend di crescita di lungo periodo. La domanda, interna ed estera, ha continuato a crescere e la disoccupazione si e ulteriormente ridotta. Secondo gli indicatori disponibili, l’evoluzione della domanda interna e delle esportazioni risultera presumibilmente positiva anche nel primo trimestre del 2000. Nel settore delle esportazioni si delinea tuttavia un rallentamento nei prossimi mesi. Da novembre a febbraio, il tasso d’inflazione al consumo annuale e sceso dall’1,9% allo 0,8%. Questa diminuzione inattesa dell’inflazione e imputabile soprattutto al forte calo dei prezzi dell’olio da riscaldamento e della benzina. Il rincaro interno e invece leggermente aumentato, dall’1,1% all’1,3%. Tra ottobre e febbraio, la Banca nazionale ha mantenuto il Libor a tre mesi nella zona centrale della fascia di oscillazione (3%–4%). Nel medesimo periodo, il rendimento dei prestiti svizzeri con una durata residua di dieci anni e diminuito di 0,3 punti percentuali, al 3,6%. Il valore esterno nominale ponderato all’esportazione del franco svizzero ha registrato un lieve aumento da novembre a febbraio; in termini reali e tuttavia rimasto pressoche invariato. MoPoS – Gioco di simulazione della politica monetaria (p. 38) In questo gioco elettronico, il giocatore assume il ruolo di una banca centrale, responsabile della politica monetaria di un’economia virtuale semplificata. Lo scopo e quello di offrire all’utente un’occasione di sperimentare le possibilita e i limiti della politica monetaria. MoPoS non richiede conoscenze specifiche ed e destinato a chi s’interessa della materia in generale, nonche ad allievi e studenti. Il programma consente di modificare e fissare a piacimento le caratteristiche specifiche del modello (funzione di reazione della politica monetaria, valore dei parametri, caratteristiche degli shock). Il giocatore dispone pertanto di numerose possibilita d’applicazione. MoPoS e ottenibile presso la Banca nazionale svizzera (www.snb.ch). Monetary policy decisions (p. 8) The National Bank decided on 22 March 2001 to lower the target range for the 3-month Libor rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%–3.75%. Compared with the end of last year, the pressure on prices has eased slightly. Moreover, currently there is no indication that price stability might be threatened in the medium term, thus permitting a slight lowering of the interest rate. Economic development in Switzerland has slowed down; nevertheless, the outlook remains favourable. The risks in the international environment have increased, however. The National Bank intends to keep the interest rate in the middle of the target range for the time being. Monetary policy was last adjusted on 15 June 2000, when the National Bank raised the target range for the 3-month Libor rate by half a percentage point to 3%–4%. Economic and monetary developments (p. 10) In the second half of 2000, economic activity in the US cooled markedly. In January and March, the Fed countered this development by lowering its key interest rates by a total of 1.5 percentage points to 5%. The economic downturn in the US increased worldwide the uncertainty of futur economic growth. Particularly in Japan, there was a growing danger of another downswing. In Europe, too, the forces of economic recovery abated, albeit less markedly than in the United States. Prospects in Europe, however, continue to be assessed optimistically. In Switzerland, the economic situation remained healthy in the fourth quarter. At just under 2%, the growth of real gross domestic product was approximately in line with the long-term growth trend. Both domestic and export demand continued to rise and unemployment figures again receded slightly. According to the available indicators, domestic demand and exports are likely to have again developed favourably in the first quarter. In the export sector, however, there were signs of a slowdown in the months ahead. In the period from November to February, annual inflation measured by consumer prices receded from 1.9% to 0.8%. This unexpected decline in inflation was mainly due to the significant fall in prices for heating oil and petrol. Domestic inflation, by contrast, edged up slightly from 1.1% to 1.3%. The National Bank left the 3-month Libor rate in the middle of the target range of 3%–4% from October to February. The yield on Confederation bonds with a maturity of 10 years fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% between October and February. From November to February, the export-weighted external value of the Swiss franc rose slightly in nominal terms. In real terms, however, it remained almost unchanged. MoPoS – A monetary policy simulation game (p. 38) MoPoS is a computer game in which users can assume the role of a central bank and simulate monetary policy in a simple virtual economy. The computer program was created to sensitise users to the potential and the difficulties of monetary policy. It does not require any special previous knowledge and is aimed at both interested lay persons and students. Since model specifications can be changed and set any way the user wishes (monetary policy reaction function, parameter values, the properties of shocks), there are numerous possibilities to use the game. The software can be obtained from the Swiss National Bank (www.snb.ch). La Banque nationale suisse a decide d’abaisser de 0,25 point la marge de fluctuation du Libor a trois mois, marge qui passe ainsi a 2,75%–3,75%. Les pressions a la hausse sur les prix ont diminue quelque peu depuis fin 2000, et aucun signe n’indique actuellement que la stabilite du niveau des prix pourrait etre menacee a moyen terme. Cela permet une baisse des taux d’interet. La croissance economique s’est un peu ralentie, mais les perspectives restent bonnes. Les risques decoulant de l’environnement international ont cependant augmente. La Banque nationale envisage de maintenir, jusqu’a nouvel avis, le Libor a trois mois dans la zone mediane de sa marge de fluctuation. La precedente adaptation de la politique monetaire remonte au 15 juin 2000. La Banque nationale avait alors releve d’un demi-point la marge de fluctuation du Libor. En Suisse, la conjoncture a atteint son point culminant au premier trimestre de 2000. En comparaison annuelle, la croissance du produit interieur brut reel s’etablissait alors a 3,9%. Elle a entretemps faibli pour s’inscrire a 2,5% au quatrieme trimestre de 2000. Mais on a egalement observe une stabilisation au second semestre de l’annee. D’un trimestre a l’autre, la croissance a ete en effet de pres de 2%, tant au troisieme qu’au quatrieme trimestre. Un tel taux correspond au rythme de croisiere que l’economie suisse devrait suivre a moyen terme. Les investissements en biens d’equipement ont continue leur vigoureuse progression et la croissance des exportations est restee remarquable, alors que la consommation privee et les investissements en constructions ont perdu quelque peu de leur dynamisme.