La rivalutazione al valore di mercato della consistenza in oro del 1o maggio 2000, ha avuto come prima conseguenza un aumento del bilancio di 28 miliardi di franchi. Il risultato complessivo e stato eccezionalmente elevato. Nel con-tempo, la Banca nazionale ha dato inizio alla vendita di oro non piu necessario a scopi monetari. Il ricavato di tali vendite (2,6 miliardi di franchi alla fine del 2000) e stato investito, in conformita alla legge sulla Banca nazionale, esclusivamente presso debitori svizzeri ed esteri di massima solvibilita. Un accantonamento per la devoluzione degli attivi disponibili e stato costituito in vista della probabile assegnazione ad altri scopi pubblici delle 1300 tonnellate circa d’oro non piu necessarie a fini di politica monetaria, rispettivamente del ricavo della loro vendita. Il presidente della direzione generale della Banca nazionale svizzera, Jean-Pierre Roth, ha analizzato l’evoluzione economica – un’evoluzione favorevole accompagnata da un’inflazione moderata – dell’anno appena trascorso. Le prospettive rimangono favorevoli, sebbene a livello internazionale si celino dei rischi. Le esperienze fatte con la nuova strategia di politica monetaria sono positive. Il prossimo progetto fondamentale per l’istituto d’emissione concerne la revisione della legge sulla Banca nazionale. Il mandato, che la Costituzione federale conferisce in termini generali all’istituto d’emissione sara chiaramente definito nella revisione: la Banca nazionale deve assicurare la stabilita dei prezzi, tenendo conto dell’evoluzione congiunturale. La nuova legge precisera inoltre la forma della sua indipendenza imponendole, quale contrappeso, un obbligo formale di rendiconto. Mentre la legge attualmente in vigore disciplina la ripartizione dell’utile della Banca nazionale, il disegno di legge prevede pure disposizioni sulla sua determinazione. La costituzione di sufficienti riserve in divise sara garantita anche in futuro. Previsione d’inflazione della Banca nazionale svizzera (p. 54) Dall’inizio del 2000, la Banca nazionale ha adottato una nuova strategia di politica monetaria che annovera tra i suoi elementi chiave la previsione d’inflazione. Quest’ultima costituisce la base delle decisioni di politica monetaria e riveste un ruolo importante nella comunicazione al pubblico. Il contributo illustra i motivi che hanno indotto la Banca nazionale a basare la sua politica monetaria sulla previsione d’inflazione, descrive l’approccio scelto e indica come la previsione pubblicata debba essere interpretata. Sono inoltre brevemente illustrati i diversi modelli di previsione che la Banca nazionale considera per formulare la previsione d’inflazione. Modello macro-econometrico per la Svizzera (p. 62) La Banca nazionale ricorre a diversi indicatori e modelli per analizzare la situazione economica e preparare le proprie decisioni di politica monetaria. Quest’articolo presenta il piu ampio dei modelli attualmente in uso. Il testo descrive la struttura fondamentale del modello e ne illustra le caratteristiche attraverso delle simulazioni. Il modello, di tipo neokeynesiano, e stimato ricorrendo ad osservazioni a frequenza trimestrale. Monetary policy assessment at mid-year (p. 8) On 14 June 2001, the National Bank decided to leave the target range for the 3-month Libor rate unchanged at 2.75%–3.75%. For the time being, the 3-month Libor rate is to be kept in the middle of the target range. Monetary policy was last adjusted on 22 March 2001, when the target range was lowered by 0.25 percentage points. Economic and monetary developments (p. 12) In the first few months of 2001 the global economy cooled off. While the US economy had already lost considerable momentum in the second half of 2000 and again only saw little growth in the first quarter, the economic slowdown in Europe was less pronounced. Accordingly, the European Central Bank only cut its key rates marginally. The Fed, by contrast, reacted swiftly and relaxed the monetary reins. In Switzerland, as in the previous period, real gross domestic product remained more or less on the long-term growth path in the first quarter, exceeding the year-earlier level by 2.5%. Both domestic and export demand contributed to economic growth. Employment continued to increase, and unemployment again declined slightly. In the coming months, falling orders in the export industry are likely to cause stimuli from abroad to weaken. Annual inflation measured by consumer prices rose to 1.8% until May, following a sharp decrease in February. Inflationary effects emanated mainly from domestic goods and, to a lesser extent, also from the renewed oil price hike. Following the lowering of the target range on 22 March, the National Bank kept the 3-month Libor rate close to the middle of the new target range of 2.75%–3.75%. It thus fell from an average of 3.48% in February to 3.25% in April. Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (p. 42) The President of the Bank Council of the Swiss National Bank, Eduard Belser, commented the central bank’s annual financial statement for 2000 at the Annual General Meeting. The revaluation of the gold holdings at market value effected on 1 May 2000 has led to a precipitous expansion of the National Bank’s balance sheet by almost Sfr 28 billion and to an extraordinarily high aggregate income. At the same point in time, the National Bank began with the sale of the gold reserves no longer required for monetary policy purposes. The proceeds – Sfr 2.6 billion by the end of 2000 – were invested, within the scope provided by the National Bank Law, exclusively with Swiss and foreign debtors with an excellent credit rating. Provisions were set aside for the assignment of free assets, thus taking into account the strong likelihood that the National Bank will in due course assign the approximately 1300 tonnes of gold no longer needed for monetary policy purposes, or the proceeds from their sale respectively, to other public purposes. Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, analysed the favourable economic development of the past year, which was accompanied by a no more than moderate rise in inflation. The prospects remain good despite the risks inherent in the international environment. Experience with the new monetary policy concept fills the National Bank with confidence. The revision of the National Bank Law is the next undertaking of fundamental importance with which the Bank has to concern itself. Its mandate, which is only loosely defined in the Constitution, will be clearly spelled out in the revised Law: the National Bank must ensure price stability, while duly taking into account the development of economic activity. The National Bank’s independence will also be formulated in detail; to counterbalance this, formal accountability will be embodied in the Law. While the distribution of the National Bank’s profit was laid down in the present Law, the new draft law now also includes regulations for the calculation of the profit. They are designed to continue to enable the National Bank to set aside adequate currency reserves. The inflation forecast of the Swiss National Bank (p. 54) Since the beginning of 2000, the National Bank has been implementing a new monetary policy concept in which the inflation forecast has been assigned a key role. The inflation forecast provides the main basis for monetary policy decisions and plays an important role in communication with the public.